Around FCS: PFL Must Replace Stars
Cfootball Betting Lines
08/27/2008 -
Philadelphia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pioneer Football League has experienced
something of a renaissance era in the past few years with players like San
Diego's Josh Johnson and Eric Bakhtiari and Dayton's Kevin Hoyng passing
through the league.
With those players having graduated, the PFL must find a new identity with new
stars this season.
San Diego has some name players back with J.T. Rogan at running back, John
Matthews at wide receiver, Gabe Derricks at cornerback and versatile Ben
Hannula moving to quarterback after playing receiver and defensive back.
Dayton has some great defenders returning, but must replace Hoyng at
quarterback. Davidson returns the league's most experienced quarterback with
Ryan Alexander and could challenge with him leading the way.
Morehead State and Drake also hope to get into the mix for title contention,
while Jacksonville, Valparaiso and Butler look to improve.
The league adds Campbell this year as the Camels return to football for the
first time since 1939. Marist, which is playing as an independent this year
after the disbanding of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association, will move to
the PFL in 2009.
1. San Diego (9-2 overall, 6-1 conference, tied for first 2007)
Johnson (43 TD passes, one interception, 3,714 yards of total offense) has
moved on to the NFL after putting up some of the best numbers in NCAA history
and finishing third in last year's Payton Award voting.
Hannula looks to be his replacement and has the athleticism to keep the
Torero's offense clicking. Andre Rolin was Johnson's backup in 2007 and started
one game (249 yards, five TDs), but was sidelined by a shoulder injury in the
spring.
Rogan rushed for 1,021 yards and 10 TDs and is also one of the best kick
returners in FCS. Matthews averaged 23.1 yards with 16 TDs on 47 catches.
Bakhtiari will be missed after being a Buchanan Award finalist last year and
helping USD roll up 32 sacks last season. But there are enough good players to
rebuild the defense around with Patrick O'Neill (65 tackles) and Derricks (55
tackles) keying the defense.
Kicker Hutch Parker (9-of-12 on field goals) and punter John McSorley (30.2 net
punting average) give the Toreros good special teams play.
Ron Caragher had a strong first year as coach after replacing Stanford-bound
Jim Harbaugh and should be a strength for the team again this year. San Diego
has piled up five straight winning seasons, has won or shared three consecutive
PFL titles and should be the favorite to win the title again.
2. Dayton (11-1, 6-1, tied for first)
The biggest change at Dayton is the retirement of legendary coach Mike Kelly
after 27 years and only one losing season, but Rick Chamberlain moves from
defensive coordinator to head coach to keep the continuity in the program.
Chamberlain takes over a team that won a share of the PFL title, the Gridiron
Classic and The Sportsbook Betting Lines Cup as the top mid-major school.
Hoyng rushed for 640 yards, passed for 3,317 and accounted for 40 TDs in the
Flyers' new spread attack last year, so new starter Rob Florian will have some
big shoes to fill. The strong-armed Florian had 411 yards passing in one start
in 2006.
Ben Shappie is the best returning running back (529 yards, 4.9 average, six
TDs). Dayton will also miss All-American tight end Matt Champa (59 catches,
15.9 average, nine TDs).
Defense will again be a Flyer strength with Steve McDonald (79 tackles) Corey
Vossler (71 tackles), Scott Vossler (68 tackles, nine sacks) and Kalen
Hemmelgarn (41 tackles, 8.5 sacks) among the six returning starters. Dayton was
ranked fourth nationally in defense last year.
3. Davidson (6-4, 4-3, fourth)
The Wildcats will likely go as far as Alexander's strong arm will take them.
Alexander passed for 2,238 yards and 18 TDs last year as Davidson closed ground
on the top of the PFL.
Chad Barnes, Justin Williams and Kenny Mantao combined for 1,055 yards rushing
last year, while Kirk Konert and Myles Potter had 27 receptions each. The line
must replace a standout center in George Zoeckler.
The Wildcats averaged 31 points per game, but gave up 28 on average last year,
but the defense should improve with eight starters returning. Free safety Matt
Easton and linebacker Peter Bakke (71 tackles each) and nose guard Will
Funderburg will be the leaders of the unit.
4. Morehead State (7-4, 5-2, third)
The Eagles were the only team to beat Dayton last year, but they missed a
chance to qualify for the Gridiron Classic and win a share of the PFL title
when they dropped a 27-14 decision to San Diego in their final league game.
MSU will have to replace plenty of offense with the graduation of quarterback
Brian Yost (2,142 yards, 20 TDs), but new starter Evan Sawyer will have Nick
Feldman (45 catches, 16.3 average) and Erick Fitzpatrick (312 yards rushing,
425 yards receiving) to rely on.
The Eagles ranked first nationally in rushing defense, giving up just 54 yards
per game and were 10th overall. Six starters return from that group, including
linebacker Wes McDermott (64 tackles, 7.5 tackles per loss). All-American
defensive back David Hyland had eight interceptions and 11 pass breakups last
season and also caught 10 passes on offense.
5. Valparaiso (5-6, 2-5, tied for sixth)
After four consecutive losing seasons, the Crusaders hope to make some headway
this season. Warren Arnold has a chance to become an elite quarterback in the
league after rushing for 750 yards, passing for 1,912 yards and accounting for
17 TDs last season.
Valpo loses running back Jeff Horton (3,072 career yards) and will look for
Ross Wiemer (397 yards) and John Popper (291 yards) to take up the slack. Steve
Ogden (42 catches, 15.9 average, seven TDs) should be Arnold's top receiving
target again and Ryan Kozay anchors what should be a solid line.
On defense, the Crusaders are excited to have 19 of their top 20 tacklers
returning from a unit that ranked 39th defensively last year in FCS. Adam Rundh
(7.5 sacks) and Andrew Mack (5.5 sacks) head up an experienced defensive line
and Ryan Koepke (79 tackles) leads the linebackers. Cornerback Kyle
Himmelwright is the top returner among a secondary that returns four starters.
6. Drake (6-5, 3-4, fifth)
It was a strange year for a senior-oriented Bulldog squad last year. Veteran
coach Rob Ash took the Montana State head coaching job during the spring and
Steve Loney was named as interim coach.
Loney's team managed to upset No. 7 ranked Illinois State in the first game and
was ranked No. 1 in the Sportsbook Betting Lines for part of the year. Drake won five of
its first six games, losing only to Northern Iowa, but dropped four of its
final five and brought in Chris Creighton as the new coach.
The offense loses its all-time leading rusher, Scott Phaydavong (5,830 career
yards), but can build around quarterback Cole Ingle (1,387 yards, 11 TDs).
Michael Bialas (122 yards five TDs) is the top returning rusher, while Zach
Brower (47 catches, 13.9 average) is a receiving threat.
The offensive line lost All-American Dave Pammer, but returns Quinn McVey.
Drake has six starters back on defense, including linebackers Ben Morrison (87
tackles) and Stephen Platek (74 tackles) and defensive tackle Andrew Asbell (32
tackles, six sacks), but must replace top-notch safety Andy Green.
7. Jacksonville (3-8, 2-5, tied for sixth)
The Dolphins took some steps forward and others backwards in Kerwin Bell's
first year as coach. They struggled running the ball and defending the run to
finish 87th in scoring offense (21.8 points per game and 99th in scoring
defense (31.9).
Jacksonville found a gifted running back in freshman Rudell Small, who ran for
490 yards and nine TDs in partial year as a starter. Small, Tommie Rogers and
Ron Harris combined for 1,036 yards. Erik Stapleton takes over a quarterback
after throwing for 657 yards in a backup role for a team that returns six
offensive starters, including receiver Geavon Tribble (41 catches, 17.1
average, five TDs).
The defense only has five starters returning. Free safety Robson Noel (80
tackles) has been the Dolphins' most productive performer.
8. Butler (4-7, 0-7, eighth)
Hopes were high when the Bulldogs won their first four games last year, but
then they failed to win again in PFL play. Butler has compiled six straight
losing years, but the four wins were the most since 2002.
The offense ranked 105th nationally offense and can only improve. Matt Kobli
(575 yards of total offense) takes over at quarterback and has Scott Gray (547
yards, 15 TDs) to count on as a running back. Dan Bohrer is the best returning
receiver with 36 catches for a 10.8 average last season.
The defense was solid against the run (33rd nationally), but struggled against
the pass (100th). Six starters are back, including defensive end Derek
Guggenberger (68 tackles, three sacks) and safety Mike Bennett (57 tackles,
eight tackles for loss), but the Bulldogs could struggle again on this side of
the ball.
9. Campbell (first year program)
Dale Steele, a longtime assistant coach with Southern Conference and FBS roots,
takes over a program that will play for the first time in 58 years. The Camels
will play a non-Division I schedule before embarking on their PFL slate.
Wesley Snow is expected to be the quarterback in the spread offense, while Carl
Smith rushed for 114 yards in the spring game and looks to be the top rusher,
along with Earl Kemp. Ray Griffis has established himself as a go-to receiver,
while guard Andy Johnson has opened eyes on the offensive line.
The 4-3 defense will likely be one of the smallest in the league, averaging 242
pounds, but Steele has found a couple of gems in defensive tackle Randal
Herring and free safety Chris Dixon.
10. Marist (3-8, 2-1 MAAC, tied for first)
The Red Foxes will try to get through an independent season before being
eligible for the PFL title in 2009. With no league title to compete for,
motivation could be difficult for the team.
Marist will again feature a strong rushing attack with Obozua Ehikioya (631
yards, seven TDs) and Keith Mitchell (405 yards) returning. Will Brown (35
catches, 11.0 average) is the best experienced receiver, but the Red Foxes will
be inexperienced at quarterback. John Schaeffer is the likely starter.
Rory Foley (66 tackles) may move from linebacker to safety, while Kurt Steubing
(63 tackles) will continue to bolster the linebacking corps. The defensive line
must replace all three starters, though Terrence Turner has come on strong.
The Red Foxes must improve on both sides of the ball after being ranked 90th
offensively and 82nd defensively last year.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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